{"id":250,"date":"2021-05-07T12:15:27","date_gmt":"2021-05-07T12:15:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gambutkita.org\/?page_id=250"},"modified":"2023-07-06T04:08:15","modified_gmt":"2023-07-06T04:08:15","slug":"prediction","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/gambutkita.org\/id\/prediction\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediksi"},"content":{"rendered":"
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PREDIKSI<\/div>
PENGENDALIAN KEBAKARAN<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risiko keparahan musim kebakaran adalah prediksi berbasis iklim dan cuaca; dan dengan bantuan model iklim, prediksi yang cukup akurat sekarang dapat dirancang. Prediksi sering menggunakan data iklim dan cuaca tetapi juga mempelajari tren dalam waktu yang lama dan melengkapi tren ini dengan data dasar. Para ilmuwan sering menggunakan pola El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) untuk membantu prediksi risiko kebakaran, karena kebakaran diperburuk oleh kondisi kekeringan di tahun-tahun ENSO. Namun, bahkan di tahun-tahun non-ENSO, masih terdapat beberapa kebakaran.

Di Sumatera Selatan dan Kalimantan Tengah, musim kebakaran berlangsung dari Juli hingga Oktober. Selama periode ini, permukaan air tanah turun dan bahan bakar di permukaan menjadi sangat kering. Kebakaran kecil yang terjadi pada awal musim kebakaran kurang penting dibandingkan kebakaran yang terjadi kemudian pada musim kemarau. Hal ini disebabkan karena kebakaran yang terjadi di awal musim lebih kecil kemungkinannya bertransisi ke dalam tanah dan menjadi kebakaran gambut (subsurface fires) karena permukaan air tanah masih tinggi dan gambut masih dalam keadaan lembab. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Jika kondisi biofisik meliputi kelembaban gambut dan kedalaman permukaan air tanah yang rendah, muatan bahan bakar yang terus menerus di permukaan dengan bahan bakar berat yang tersedia, dan suhu udara dan kecepatan angin yang tinggi, vegetasi permukaan yang terbakar dapat memicu kebakaran gambut. Tanah gambut yang membara selanjutnya dapat memicu kembali kebakaran vegetasi di permukaan, memungkinkan kebakaran menyebar baik di atas maupun di bawah permukaan.<\/p>

Dengan demikian, kebakaran di lahan gambut tropis sebenarnya merupakan dua fenomena yang berbeda: kebakaran yang membakar bahan bakar yang tersedia di permukaan lahan gambut - kebakaran permukaan - dan kebakaran yang bertransisi ke bawah dan membakar tanah gambut itu sendiri, atau kebakaran gambut.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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PREDICTIONFIRE MANAGEMENT Share on facebook Share on twitter Share on linkedin The risk of severity of a fire season is a climate- and weather-based prediction, and with the aid of climate models, fairly accurate predictions can now be made. 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